مهندس بهادر احرامیان
مدیرعامل فولاد یزد و نایب رئیس هیئت مدیره انجمن تولیدکنندگان فولاد ایران
صنعت فولاد ایران در دهه گذشته با یکی از بزرگترین ظرفیت سازی های دنیا در خارج از چین، در حال افزایش تولید خود از حدود ۱۰ میلیون تن به نزدیک به ۵۵ میلیون تن می باشد. در انتهای سال ۹۸ تقریبا نیمی از این ظرفیت سازی به مرحله تولید رسیده است و مابقی نیز در مراحل مختلف پیشرفت می باشد و ارزیابی های میدانی نشان می دهد که قطعا تا پایان سال ۱۴۰۴ ظرفیت نصب شده صنعت فولاد ایران با وجود کند شدن سرعت پیشرفت طرح ها به واسطه تحریم ها … و غیره از ظرفیت برنامه اعلامی پیشی خواهد گرفت.
یکی از مهمترین چالش های بهره برداری از ظرفیت ایجاد شده علاوه بر ایجاد زیرساخت ها، دستیابی اقتصادی به بازارهای فروش و مسایلی از این دست، تامین مواد اولیه مورد نیاز برای دستیابی به ظرفیت تولید نصب شده می باشد.
با توجه به نبود منابع قابل توجه قراضه داخلی صنعت فولاد ایران به چیزی در حدود ۹۰ میلیون تن کنسانتره سنگ آهن برای دستیابی به سقف ظرفیت تولید ایجاد شده نیاز دارد و این در حالی است که تولید کنسانتره کشور در حال حاضر چیزی در حدود ۴۵ میلیون تن می باشد.
در حال حاضر معادن سنگ آهن با تولید حدود ۸۰ میلیون تن سنگ آهن دانه بندی علاوه بر تامین خوراک واحدهای تغلیط خود حدود ۵ الی ۱۰ درصد از تولید خود را – زیر سایه انتقاد فولادسازان- روانه بازارهای صادراتی می نمایند. بنابراین با فرض عدم کاهش عیار معادن سنگ آهن در سال های آینده برای تولید ۹۰ میلیون تن کنسانتره بخش معدن ایران نیازمند افزایش ۲ برابری تولید سنگ آهن دانه بندی خود از مقدار ۸۰ میلیون تن فعلی به حدود ۱۵۰ میلیون تن می باشد.
در کوتاه مدت کسری جزیی ایجاد شده در تامین خوراک واحدهای فولادی در مهرماه سال جاری با وضع عوارض بازدارنده صادراتی در کوتاه مدت جبران شده است. اما روند افزایش ظرفیت و نیاز کنسانتره یا گندله واحدهای فولادی کسری بسیار بزرگتر از صادرات کنونی کشور را شکل خواهد داد که تنها را حل آن سرمایه گذاری در جهت توسعه معادن و افزایش تولید می باشد.
تامین سنگ آهن به دلایل مختلف جدی ترین چالش پیش روی سال های آینده صنعت فولاد کشور می باشد. اول اینکه تمامی ذخایر بزرگ سنگ آهن ایران شناسایی شده اند و احتمال کشف ذخایر بزرگ قابل توجه اقتصادی قابل برداشت در کلاس سنگان یا گل گهر چندان زیاد نمی باشد. معادنی مانند چادرملو و بافق نیز کمتر از دوم اینکه عیار متوسط ذخایر موجود نیز در حال کاهش مداوم می باشد و بنابراین برای تولید هر تن کنسانتره نیازمند برداشت سنگ خام بیشتر و بیشتری از معادن خواهیم بود. سوم اینکه تامین کسری سنگ آهن در این مقیاس از منابع خارجی نیز با چالش های خاص تجاری، زیرساختی و غیره خود مواجه خواهد بود.
بنابراین به اعتقاد بسیاری کارشناسان راهبرد صنعت فولاد ایران در تامین سنگ آهن در سال های آینده با وضعیت فعلی تفاوت های اساسی خواهد داشت. شواهد امر حاکی از این است که به جای اتکا به چند معدن بزرگ داخلی برای تامین کنسانتره یا گندله احیا مستقیم با کیفیت بالا، فولادسازان می بایست استراتژی تامین خوراک خود را میان معادن کوچک و متوسط متعدد با محصولات با کیفیت های گوناگون و از سوی دیگر منابع وارداتی معطوف نمایند.
با توجه به مشکلات واردات سنگ آهن استفاده از پتانسیل بالقوه معادن کوچک و متوسط داخلی بیشترین الویت اقتصادی را برای کشور دارا می باشد. در این راستا توجه به این مهم که نیازهای انگیزشی سرمایه گزاران این بخش با سیاست های جاری که بیشتر روی توسعه معادن بزرگ متمرکز بوده اند و معادن کوچک و متوسط را بیشتر به عنوان یک پدیده جنبی با کاربرد محدود ارز آوری نگریسته است تفاوت های جدی دارد. در واقع نیاز امروز صنعت فولاد تشویق فعالان معدنی به سرمایه گذاری و تبدیل همه تولیدات معادن کوچک و بزرگ کشور به کنسانتره و گندله سنگ آهن می باشد.
توسعه معادن بخش خصوصی در سال های گذشته در غیاب محسوس تسهیلات و کمک های ویژه ای صورت گرفته است که تمامی معادن بزرگ با مالکیت دولتی بر مبنای آنهای به تولید رسیده اند. در واقع این چهارچوب کاری که به دلیل محدودیت های قانونی چون عدم توثیق پروانه های معدنی و سایر تسهیلات شکل گرفته است باعث جذب فعالان اقتصادی پرریسک که مایلند در کسب و کار متکی به خود باشند و بازارهای رقابتی، آزاد و غیر دستوری باشند فرهنگ سازی شده است.
در حالیکه معادن بزرگ ما معمولا در قبال دریافت کمک های ویژه و سخاوتمندانه در طرحهای توسعه در قیمت گذاری و نحوه اداره از جمله جذب نیروی انسانی … و غیره تابع نظرات دولت بودند. این الگو با فعالیت بخش خصوصی که با ریسک سرمایه شخصی و اتکا به بازارهای صادراتی شکل گرفته است تفاوت ماهوی اساسی دارد.
در واقع ایجاد انگیزش در این گروه با “علامت قیمت” در فضایی با رقابت آزاد بهترین مشوق در جهت دهی به سرمایه گذاران خصوصی جهت تولید کنسانتره و گندله می باشد. این مهمترین تغییر نگرش نیازمند به اجرا در سیاستگذاری بخش سنگ آهن می باشد چراکه با افزایش شکاف عرضه و تقاضا و ورود کارخانجات جدید به چرخه تولید نظام سهیمه بندی تولید و مصرف کنسانتره و گندله مانند هر بازار دیگری کارآیی خود را از دست خواهد داد.
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